Bitcoin (BTC) has soared to new heights, trading steadily above the $100,000 mark after gaining approximately 6.48% during the past week. The flagship cryptocurrency leads a broader market rally that has also seen Ethereum (ETH) surge an impressive 35%, pushing it above $2,500.
This remarkable performance comes amid a significant improvement in macroeconomic conditions that have boosted market appetite for risk assets, creating what analysts describe as a “perfect storm” of positive catalysts for digital assets.
US-China Trade Breakthrough
On Sunday, a major geopolitical development provided substantial relief to global markets when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced a breakthrough trade agreement with China following intensive negotiations in Geneva.
The agreement implements a 90-day reduction in bilateral tariffs, with the United States cutting its rate on Chinese imports from a punishing 145% down to 30%, while China reciprocates by lowering duties on American goods from 125% to just 10%.
While this reprieve is temporary, it marks a significant de-escalation in the trade hostilities between the world’s two largest economies that had threatened to accelerate global inflation and dampened enthusiasm for risk assets in recent months.
Inflation Hits Four-Year Low
Further fueling the crypto rally was Tuesday’s unexpectedly positive inflation report. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.2% in April, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 2.3%—below March’s 2.4% reading and marking the lowest level since February 2021.
This cooling inflation comes as a surprise to economists who had anticipated upward price pressures from the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies. According to Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, “Core goods prices have yet to reflect the impact of the tariff hikes that have taken place since February, while services inflation continues to gradually ease.”
Market Sentiment Shift
The combination of easing trade tensions and cooling inflation has dramatically shifted market dynamics that previously worked against digital assets. During the peak of US-China trade hostilities, investors had demanded higher risk premiums, leading to a flight to safety that benefited traditional safe havens like gold and cash at the expense of cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.
On the heels of its much-anticipated Pectra upgrade, Ethereum has had a phenomenal week – up around 35% as markets return to risk on assets. Source: Brave New Coin Ethereum Liquid Index
The current macroeconomic backdrop has reversed this trend, creating substantial tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency sector. Lower inflation also reinforces expectations for potential interest rate cuts, which typically benefit non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Cautious Outlook Remains
Despite the current euphoria, some analysts urge caution regarding the sustainability of these favorable conditions. Coulton warns that “Core goods inflation is likely to pick up in the next few months as inventories of goods imported pre-tariff hikes get depleted.”
This suggests the current goldilocks environment for Bitcoin—characterized by controlled inflation and reduced geopolitical tensions—may face challenges in the coming months as the full impact of earlier tariff increases works its way through the economy.
For now, however, Bitcoin continues to capitalize on this rare alignment of positive macroeconomic factors, pushing further into uncharted territory above the $100,000 threshold that once seemed unimaginable to all but the most ardent cryptocurrency advocates.
